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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University2.92+4.88vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+2.36vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia3.54+1.30vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.39+0.71vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.28+0.09vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.84+3.14vs Predicted
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7University of Maryland2.09+1.32vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.97+0.69vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.84-2.84vs Predicted
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10William and Mary0.66+2.01vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.85-2.93vs Predicted
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13Drexel University0.20+0.04vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.13-0.90vs Predicted
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15Monmouth University0.98-3.77vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.33-11.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.88Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.1%1st Place
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4.3University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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4.71Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.09SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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9.14Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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8.32University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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8.69Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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6.16George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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12.01William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
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9.07Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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13.04Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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13.1Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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11.23Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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4.9U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Runci | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 14.0% | 16.9% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 15.4% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Johns | 12.7% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 12.4% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Russell Cramer | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| William Ricketson | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bryan | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 18.5% | 22.1% | 15.6% |
| John O'Riordan | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 23.7% | 34.3% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 24.9% | 36.7% |
| Paul Luisi | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 16.2% | 18.9% | 14.2% | 9.3% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 12.7% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.