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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+3.15vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+2.43vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.28+1.79vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.33vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.33-0.24vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.92-0.25vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.84+1.57vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.84-2.04vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.85-0.43vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University0.98+0.78vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland2.09-2.97vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University-0.41+0.54vs Predicted
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14Drexel University0.20-1.52vs Predicted
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15William and Mary0.66-3.55vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-3.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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4.43Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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4.79SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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4.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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4.76U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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5.75Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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8.57Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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5.96George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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8.57Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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10.78Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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8.03University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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13.54Christopher Newport University-0.410.0%1st Place
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12.48Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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11.45William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
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12.42Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 16.2% | 17.3% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Johns | 13.2% | 15.9% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 12.9% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 16.1% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| William Ricketson | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 17.4% | 16.3% | 11.1% | 4.5% |
| Russell Cramer | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Kira Munger | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 22.7% | 45.5% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 19.5% | 23.2% | 20.1% |
| Andrew Bryan | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 14.6% | 8.5% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 23.3% | 20.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.