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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+3.19vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.33+2.57vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.39+1.51vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.32vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.92+0.83vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.28-1.18vs Predicted
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7Hampton University1.84+1.54vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.84-2.03vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland2.09-1.12vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.85-2.29vs Predicted
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12Monmouth University0.98-1.22vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.13-0.34vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.66-2.43vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.20-2.64vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University-0.41-2.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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4.57U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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4.51Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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4.32St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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5.83Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.82SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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8.54Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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5.97George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.88University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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8.71Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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10.78Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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12.66Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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11.57William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
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12.36Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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13.3Christopher Newport University-0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 16.1% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 11.7% | 15.1% | 15.7% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Johns | 14.3% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 16.9% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 11.3% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| William Ricketson | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Russell Cramer | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 15.6% | 14.6% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 6.6% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 18.8% | 25.2% | 21.9% |
| Andrew Bryan | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 20.3% | 15.1% | 10.2% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 18.6% | 22.1% | 18.6% |
| Kira Munger | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 21.7% | 41.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.