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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+3.18vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.39+2.46vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.84+2.93vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.34vs Predicted
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5Monmouth University0.98+5.88vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.92-0.18vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.28-2.17vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.33-3.25vs Predicted
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9University of Maryland2.09-0.98vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.84-1.16vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.85-2.25vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.48+0.20vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.13-1.14vs Predicted
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15Drexel University0.20-2.44vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.66-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.18University of Virginia3.540.2%1st Place
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4.46Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.93George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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4.34St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.2%1st Place
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10.88Monmouth University0.980.0%1st Place
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5.82Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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4.83SUNY Maritime College3.280.1%1st Place
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4.75U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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8.02University of Maryland2.090.0%1st Place
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8.84Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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8.75Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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12.2Christopher Newport University0.480.0%1st Place
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12.86Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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12.56Drexel University0.200.0%1st Place
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11.57William and Mary0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 16.4% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Johns | 13.5% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Ricketson | 8.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mayumi Roller | 16.3% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Luisi | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 17.1% | 12.3% | 8.0% |
| Zach Runci | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Randall Hartranft | 11.8% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 13.0% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Russell Cramer | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Ian McAllister | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 19.3% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 21.6% | 32.3% |
| Trevor Nederlof | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 15.8% | 20.8% | 26.7% |
| Andrew Bryan | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 17.8% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.