← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College2.10+6.80vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University3.30+1.18vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University2.10+5.53vs Predicted
-
4Tufts University1.15+5.57vs Predicted
-
5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67+6.58vs Predicted
-
6Yale University2.71-1.69vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania1.77-0.24vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University2.20-1.57vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.29vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University0.97+0.24vs Predicted
-
11Jacksonville University-1.38-3.42vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island0.99-2.07vs Predicted
-
13College of Charleston1.81-5.47vs Predicted
-
14Christopher Newport University0.65-1.52vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-4.31vs Predicted
-
16Clemson University0.12-3.60vs Predicted
-
17University of Michigan-0.64-1.69vs Predicted
-
18Connecticut College-0.29-3.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.8Dartmouth College2.105.5%1st Place
-
3.18Stanford University3.3027.5%1st Place
-
8.53Harvard University2.103.8%1st Place
-
9.57Tufts University1.153.4%1st Place
-
11.58St. Mary's College of Maryland0.672.5%1st Place
-
4.31Yale University2.7116.2%1st Place
-
6.76University of Pennsylvania1.778.0%1st Place
-
6.43Georgetown University2.208.6%1st Place
-
12.29U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.6%1st Place
-
10.24Old Dominion University0.973.0%1st Place
-
7.58Jacksonville University-1.384.8%1st Place
-
9.93University of Rhode Island0.992.6%1st Place
-
7.53College of Charleston1.816.2%1st Place
-
12.48Christopher Newport University0.651.4%1st Place
-
10.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.852.2%1st Place
-
12.4Clemson University0.121.6%1st Place
-
15.31University of Michigan-0.640.4%1st Place
-
14.39Connecticut College-0.290.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 27.5% | 19.1% | 17.8% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ella Hubbard | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 16.2% | 15.7% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 7.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Emily Allen | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Julia Conneely | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Ashton Loring | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 8.2% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 16.6% | 39.6% |
| Natalie Fear | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 19.4% | 24.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.