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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.96+6.54vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+5.09vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+3.57vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University3.69+0.87vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.14+1.63vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii2.28+3.88vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.72-2.23vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.97-0.85vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.97-1.81vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.16+0.49vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.94+3.32vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.60-3.09vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-1.47vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.28-0.93vs Predicted
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15University of Notre Dame1.24-1.55vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.37-0.24vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49-4.19vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University2.46-9.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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7.09Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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6.57St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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4.87Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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6.63Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.88University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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4.77Brown University3.720.2%1st Place
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7.15Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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7.19Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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10.49University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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14.32Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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8.91Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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13.07University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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13.45University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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15.76Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
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12.81Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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8.98Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGraw | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.4% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 14.9% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.2% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Ragna Agerup | 15.3% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Filter | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 4.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Will Davies | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 20.2% | 20.5% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Luke Welker | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 9.4% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 11.8% |
| Chandler Sharp | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 18.7% | 43.2% |
| Jonathan Sager | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 8.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.