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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+6.09vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.55vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.72+1.92vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.60+4.55vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.96+2.27vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.69-1.11vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.97+0.31vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.14-1.43vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida2.16+1.24vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.28+3.48vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.97-3.60vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University2.46-2.51vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii2.28-3.25vs Predicted
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14University of Notre Dame1.24-0.81vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49-2.35vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University0.94-1.59vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.37-1.21vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-6.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.09Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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4.92Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.55Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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7.27Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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4.89Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.31Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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6.57Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.24University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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13.48University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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7.4Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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9.49Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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9.75University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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13.19University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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12.65Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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14.41Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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15.79Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
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11.43U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ragna Agerup | 13.2% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Jack McGraw | 7.7% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 14.6% | 14.5% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Filter | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jackson McCoy | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 3.4% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 16.0% | 11.3% |
| Robby Gearon | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Telmo Basterra | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 10.1% |
| Jonathan Sager | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 6.7% |
| Will Davies | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 19.1% | 21.7% |
| Chandler Sharp | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 17.4% | 44.5% |
| Luke Welker | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.