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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.97+6.50vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.07+5.06vs Predicted
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33.69+2.02vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.97+3.16vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.72-0.20vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+0.40vs Predicted
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7Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49+5.58vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.96-0.82vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.46+0.11vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.16+0.56vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii2.28-1.04vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.60-3.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-1.50vs Predicted
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14University of Notre Dame1.24-0.81vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.14-8.37vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University0.94-1.59vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.28-3.61vs Predicted
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18Western Washington University0.37-2.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.5Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.06Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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5.023.690.1%1st Place
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7.16Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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4.8Brown University3.720.2%1st Place
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6.4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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12.58Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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7.18Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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9.11Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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10.56University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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9.96University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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8.95Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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11.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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13.19University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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6.63Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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14.41Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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13.39University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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15.61Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Filter | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 13.6% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Ragna Agerup | 15.8% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Sager | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 7.6% |
| Jack McGraw | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Luke Welker | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 11.1% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Will Davies | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 20.5% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 11.6% |
| Chandler Sharp | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 18.2% | 42.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.