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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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13.69+4.12vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.62vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.07+4.08vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.72+0.77vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.14+1.71vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.35+0.01vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.75+1.13vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.60+0.58vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+2.68vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.96-2.46vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii2.28-1.05vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University2.46-2.50vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49-0.49vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.16-4.02vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.28-1.65vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University0.94-1.61vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.37-1.21vs Predicted
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18University of Notre Dame1.24-4.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.123.690.1%1st Place
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6.62St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.08Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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4.77Brown University3.720.2%1st Place
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6.71Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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6.01Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.13Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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8.58Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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11.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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7.54Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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9.95University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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9.5Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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12.51Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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9.98University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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13.35University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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14.39Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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15.79Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
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13.29University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 12.6% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ragna Agerup | 15.6% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Maia Agerup | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Safford | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Luke Welker | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% |
| Jack McGraw | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Sager | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 7.2% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 16.2% | 11.0% |
| Will Davies | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 18.3% | 20.8% |
| Chandler Sharp | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 16.9% | 44.9% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.