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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+6.11vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.96+5.59vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.28+7.11vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+6.52vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.14+0.72vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.72-2.05vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.75+0.03vs Predicted
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93.69-4.13vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida2.16+0.56vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.28+2.34vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.94+2.59vs Predicted
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13University of Notre Dame1.24+0.21vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.35-8.13vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.60-6.40vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University2.46-6.78vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49-4.21vs Predicted
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18Western Washington University0.37-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.11Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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7.59Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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10.11University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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6.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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6.72Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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4.95Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.03Bowdoin College2.750.1%1st Place
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4.873.690.1%1st Place
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10.56University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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13.34University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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14.59Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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13.21University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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5.87Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.6Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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9.22Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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12.79Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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15.56Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack McGraw | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ragna Agerup | 14.4% | 13.1% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Safford | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 14.3% | 14.2% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| Will Davies | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 18.5% | 24.2% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 11.2% |
| Maia Agerup | 11.1% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Telmo Basterra | 4.4% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Jonathan Sager | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 6.8% |
| Chandler Sharp | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 19.6% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.