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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.69+4.09vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.75+6.37vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.55+6.13vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida2.16+6.17vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.28+4.81vs Predicted
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6Boston University3.35+0.01vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-0.54vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.60+0.64vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.96-1.74vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.14-3.10vs Predicted
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11Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49+1.77vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.07-4.80vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.72-8.24vs Predicted
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14University of Notre Dame1.24-0.75vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.28-1.62vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-4.23vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.94-2.55vs Predicted
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18Western Washington University0.37-2.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Georgetown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.37Bowdoin College2.750.0%1st Place
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9.13Jacksonville University2.550.0%1st Place
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10.17University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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9.81University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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6.01Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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6.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.64Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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7.26Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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6.9Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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12.77Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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7.2Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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4.76Brown University3.720.2%1st Place
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13.25University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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13.38University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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11.77U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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14.45Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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15.59Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 13.7% | 13.6% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Safford | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte Rose | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Maia Agerup | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jack McGraw | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Sager | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 13.8% | 8.1% |
| Wiley Rogers | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ragna Agerup | 15.8% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 10.5% |
| Connor Goulet | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 16.2% | 14.5% | 11.1% |
| Luke Welker | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 4.1% |
| Will Davies | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 20.5% | 21.3% |
| Chandler Sharp | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 41.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.