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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.72+4.13vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.75vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.35+3.21vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.07+2.90vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.60+3.69vs Predicted
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63.69-1.00vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.14-0.18vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78+3.60vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University2.55-0.05vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.96-2.36vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan1.28+2.42vs Predicted
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12University of Notre Dame1.24+1.81vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.94+1.20vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida2.16-3.86vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii2.28-5.08vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49-3.18vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.37-1.25vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.97-10.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.13Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.75St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.21Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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6.9Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.69Fordham University2.600.0%1st Place
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5.03.690.1%1st Place
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6.82Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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11.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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8.95Jacksonville University2.550.0%1st Place
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7.64Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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13.42University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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13.81University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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14.2Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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10.14University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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9.92University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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12.82Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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15.75Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.25Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragna Agerup | 13.1% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maia Agerup | 10.0% | 7.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wiley Rogers | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Brad Seferian | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| JC Hermus | 14.0% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McCoy | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% |
| Charlotte Rose | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Jack McGraw | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 10.8% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 18.4% | 12.3% |
| Will Davies | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 19.2% | 19.2% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Jonathan Sager | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 7.8% |
| Chandler Sharp | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 18.7% | 43.5% |
| Christian Filter | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.