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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.42vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.35+3.97vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.72+1.68vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan1.28+9.00vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.88+6.00vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida2.16+4.14vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.07-0.34vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.60+0.38vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.14-2.65vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii2.28-0.14vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.96-3.71vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University at Galveston1.49+0.70vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.97-6.03vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.78-2.85vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.94-0.83vs Predicted
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16University of Notre Dame1.24-2.63vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.37-1.33vs Predicted
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18U. S. Naval Academy2.88-10.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.42St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.97Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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4.68Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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13.0University of Michigan1.280.0%1st Place
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11.0Jacksonville University1.880.0%1st Place
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10.14University of South Florida2.160.0%1st Place
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6.66Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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8.38Fordham University2.600.1%1st Place
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6.35Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.86University of Hawaii2.280.0%1st Place
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7.29Dartmouth College2.960.1%1st Place
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12.7Texas A&M University at Galveston1.490.0%1st Place
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6.97Bowdoin College2.970.1%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.780.0%1st Place
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14.17Northwestern University0.940.0%1st Place
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13.37University of Notre Dame1.240.0%1st Place
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15.67Western Washington University0.370.0%1st Place
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7.22U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maia Agerup | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ragna Agerup | 14.7% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Goulet | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 10.7% |
| Stephan VerHulst | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 2.0% |
| Marina Barzaghi | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Wiley Rogers | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Brad Seferian | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Jackson McCoy | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Wilkinson | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Jack McGraw | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Sager | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 7.4% |
| Christian Filter | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Welker | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| Will Davies | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 19.4% | 17.8% |
| Kevin Gallagher | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 12.2% |
| Chandler Sharp | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 16.8% | 43.8% |
| Maxwell Brill | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.