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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+5.26vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.30+1.33vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.71+1.39vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.10+4.47vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.65+7.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+6.40vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.10+0.88vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University-1.38-0.42vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.64+6.20vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.97-0.03vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.52+2.93vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-1.48vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-1.26vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.15-4.39vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.81-7.46vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island0.99-5.82vs Predicted
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17Clemson University0.12-4.40vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania1.77-11.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.26Georgetown University2.208.7%1st Place
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3.33Stanford University3.3025.8%1st Place
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4.39Yale University2.7115.5%1st Place
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8.47Harvard University2.105.0%1st Place
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12.55Christopher Newport University0.651.7%1st Place
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12.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.291.1%1st Place
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7.88Dartmouth College2.105.1%1st Place
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7.58Jacksonville University-1.386.2%1st Place
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15.2University of Michigan-0.640.5%1st Place
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9.97Old Dominion University0.973.2%1st Place
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13.93Connecticut College0.521.2%1st Place
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10.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.852.8%1st Place
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11.74St. Mary's College of Maryland0.672.2%1st Place
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9.61Tufts University1.152.8%1st Place
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7.54College of Charleston1.816.2%1st Place
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10.18University of Rhode Island0.993.1%1st Place
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12.6Clemson University0.121.6%1st Place
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6.84University of Pennsylvania1.777.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 25.8% | 19.7% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 15.5% | 14.5% | 15.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 9.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 7.8% |
| Sarah Young | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Emily Allen | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 40.9% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 18.4% | 19.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 5.9% |
| Ella Hubbard | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Emma Tallman | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Ashton Loring | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 8.8% |
| Sofia Segalla | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.