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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+5.61vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+2.06vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.75+2.56vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.45+6.28vs Predicted
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5Florida State University1.69+7.64vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin2.24+5.22vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+2.21vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.70+1.10vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.35-1.92vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-2.71vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University3.81-5.46vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.22-0.96vs Predicted
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13Florida State University1.69-0.36vs Predicted
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14Cornell University3.14-6.20vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota1.57-1.78vs Predicted
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16University of Washington0.95-1.36vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.89-8.31vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania2.80-8.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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4.06Yale University4.240.2%1st Place
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5.56College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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10.28Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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12.64Florida State University1.690.0%1st Place
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11.22University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.1%1st Place
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9.1Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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7.08Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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5.54Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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11.04University of Miami2.220.0%1st Place
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12.64Florida State University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.8Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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13.22University of Minnesota1.570.0%1st Place
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14.64University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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8.69Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.04University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Guzman | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 18.8% | 17.9% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augie Dale | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Hayden | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Kutschenreuter | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Pierce | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mack Fox | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sean Segerblom | 12.7% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Turigliatto | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Hayden | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 15.9% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
| Clark Uhl | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Carl Eaton | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 46.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.