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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.39+5.11vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+3.51vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+4.23vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.15+3.11vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.37+1.17vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.82+2.39vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+1.70vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.82+0.15vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.53+3.84vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.07+0.95vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.24-0.60vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.93-7.38vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.77-4.42vs Predicted
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14Tulane University1.65-1.59vs Predicted
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15Florida State University1.37-1.91vs Predicted
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16Florida State University1.37-2.91vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania3.12-9.73vs Predicted
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18University of Minnesota0.34-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.11Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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5.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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7.11Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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6.17College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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8.39Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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8.7University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.0%1st Place
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8.15Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.84University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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10.95University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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10.4University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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4.62Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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8.58Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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12.41Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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13.09Florida State University1.370.0%1st Place
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13.09Florida State University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.27University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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15.46University of Minnesota0.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 12.1% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Reineke | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alie Toppa | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| David Eastwood | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 17.0% | 18.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Richard McCann | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Harvey | 15.9% | 16.1% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Caelan Watts | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powell | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.6% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powell | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 16.9% | 19.6% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Stone | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 16.6% | 56.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.