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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+4.44vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.37+4.17vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania3.12+4.17vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.82+4.28vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.39+1.13vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.82+2.44vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.93-2.50vs Predicted
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8Florida State University1.37+4.86vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11-1.67vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.15-3.06vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-2.19vs Predicted
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12Tulane University1.65+0.31vs Predicted
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13Florida State University1.37-0.14vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.20-3.41vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin2.65-5.97vs Predicted
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16University of Minnesota0.34-0.69vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.07-6.04vs Predicted
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18University of Washington1.53-5.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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6.17College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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8.28Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.13Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.44Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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4.5Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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12.86Florida State University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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6.94Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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8.81University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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12.31Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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12.86Florida State University1.370.0%1st Place
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10.59Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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9.03University of Wisconsin2.650.0%1st Place
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15.31University of Minnesota0.340.0%1st Place
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10.96University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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12.75University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alie Toppa | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 9.6% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Harvey | 16.2% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powell | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 15.5% | 20.4% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Reineke | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| David Eastwood | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Caelan Watts | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 16.2% | 17.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powell | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 15.5% | 20.4% | 14.8% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Christian Spencer | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael Stone | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 15.1% | 56.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard McCann | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 20.1% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.