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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+5.77vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.07+8.64vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+2.40vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.13+3.01vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.82+2.87vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.39+0.21vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.15-0.17vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.82-0.09vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania3.12-1.86vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.66-4.89vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.24-0.75vs Predicted
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12Cornell University2.20-1.74vs Predicted
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13Tulane University1.65-0.78vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.71-5.46vs Predicted
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15University of Washington1.53-2.56vs Predicted
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16Florida State University1.37-2.98vs Predicted
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17Florida State University1.37-3.98vs Predicted
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18University of Minnesota0.34-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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10.64University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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5.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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7.01Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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7.87Old Dominion University2.820.1%1st Place
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6.21Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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6.83Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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7.91Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.14University of Pennsylvania3.120.1%1st Place
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5.11College of Charleston3.660.1%1st Place
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10.25University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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10.26Cornell University2.200.0%1st Place
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12.22Tulane University1.650.0%1st Place
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8.54University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.0%1st Place
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12.44University of Washington1.530.0%1st Place
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13.02Florida State University1.370.0%1st Place
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13.02Florida State University1.370.0%1st Place
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15.39University of Minnesota0.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Schoenherr | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Richard McCann | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Miller | 12.2% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Logue | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Reineke | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph LaForgia | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lawson Willard | 13.1% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Caelan Watts | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| David Eastwood | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Erik Skeel | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 20.5% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powell | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 18.8% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powell | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 14.4% | 18.8% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Stone | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 56.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.