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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.48+8.19vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College3.56+6.84vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.24+3.05vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.45+9.06vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.81+2.56vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.53+2.81vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+3.26vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.35+1.44vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.33vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.56-1.04vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University3.43-1.66vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.49-2.63vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-0.97vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.24-4.23vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-5.18vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.30-6.18vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.75-9.01vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.89-6.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.19Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.84Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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6.05Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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13.06Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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7.56Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.81Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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10.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.44Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
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9.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.0%1st Place
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8.96Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.34Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.37Boston University3.490.1%1st Place
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12.03University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
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9.77Tufts University3.240.1%1st Place
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9.82St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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9.82U. S. Naval Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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7.99College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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11.35Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Nicholas Baird | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 12.6% | 25.8% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Mack Fox | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.7% |
| Hector Guzman | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| Romain Screve | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| Javier De urdanibia panos | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% |
| Lucas Pierce | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 15.9% |
| Cameron Holley | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% |
| Liam McCarthy | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% |
| Parker Loftus | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Augie Dale | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.