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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.75+6.77vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.81+5.43vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.48+5.89vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.56+4.23vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+3.31vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University3.43+2.83vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+2.83vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.73+3.67vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.53-0.59vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.97+1.06vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-1.35vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.89-0.52vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.20+0.60vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-5.28vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.30-5.67vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.35-6.76vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.45-3.93vs Predicted
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18Yale University4.24-12.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.77College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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7.43Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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8.89Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.23Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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8.31Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.83Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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11.67University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
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8.41Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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11.06Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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9.65St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
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11.48Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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13.6Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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8.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.24Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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13.07Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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5.48Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augie Dale | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Sean Segerblom | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Romain Screve | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| Mack Fox | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% |
| Lucas Pierce | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 10.0% |
| Christopher Williford | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Robby Gearon | 4.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% |
| Liam McCarthy | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% |
| Christopher Keller | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 27.5% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 21.0% |
| Nicholas Baird | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.