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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.81+6.38vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+7.68vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.20+10.99vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.75+3.44vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College3.56+3.23vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.89+5.11vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.24-1.37vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.46+4.69vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.15+1.02vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.56-1.54vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20-1.08vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.53-3.21vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.48-4.55vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-5.34vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.30-5.71vs Predicted
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16Boston University2.97-5.19vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University3.43-8.12vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-6.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.38Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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9.68St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.0%1st Place
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13.99Tufts University2.200.0%1st Place
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7.44College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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8.23Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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11.11Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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5.63Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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12.69Connecticut College2.460.0%1st Place
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10.02Boston College3.150.0%1st Place
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8.46Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
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9.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.1%1st Place
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8.79Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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8.45Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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8.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
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9.29U. S. Naval Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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10.81Boston University2.970.0%1st Place
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8.88Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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11.59University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Segerblom | 7.6% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Liam McCarthy | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Christopher Keller | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 30.1% |
| Augie Dale | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 13.3% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Walter Henry | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 14.6% | 18.3% |
| Sophia Reineke | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
| Romain Screve | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Mack Fox | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Hector Guzman | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Parker Loftus | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% |
| Robby Gearon | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Lucas Pierce | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.