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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28+8.96vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.24+3.90vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.35+6.70vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University3.43+4.98vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.75+2.69vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+4.14vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.24+2.93vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College3.56+0.48vs Predicted
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9Stanford University3.17+1.24vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.48-0.82vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.30-1.17vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University3.81-4.15vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University2.89-1.75vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.53-5.57vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.45-1.84vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-3.85vs Predicted
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17Boston University3.49-7.99vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40-8.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.96St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.0%1st Place
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5.9Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
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9.7Boston College3.350.0%1st Place
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8.98Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
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7.69College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
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10.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
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9.93Tufts University3.240.0%1st Place
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8.48Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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10.24Stanford University3.170.0%1st Place
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9.18Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.83U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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7.85Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
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11.25Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
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8.43Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
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13.16Connecticut College2.450.0%1st Place
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12.15University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
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9.01Boston University3.490.1%1st Place
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9.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam McCarthy | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% |
| Nicholas Baird | 11.0% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Wade Waddell | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% |
| Augie Dale | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Mack Fox | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% |
| Cameron Holley | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 4.1% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Jacob Rosenberg | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Sean Segerblom | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| CJ Mckenna | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 24.8% |
| Lucas Pierce | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 16.1% |
| Javier De urdanibia panos | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| Hector Guzman | 5.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.