← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Brown University3.48+8.15vs Predicted
-
2Yale University4.24+3.99vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University3.24+7.25vs Predicted
-
4Dartmouth College3.53+4.61vs Predicted
-
5College of Charleston3.75+2.74vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy3.30+3.66vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.20+3.08vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University3.81-0.57vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.40+0.21vs Predicted
-
10Bowdoin College3.56-1.17vs Predicted
-
11Stanford University3.56-2.24vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University2.89-0.24vs Predicted
-
13Boston University3.49-4.29vs Predicted
-
14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.28-4.57vs Predicted
-
15Jacksonville University3.43-5.91vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Santa Barbara2.73-3.85vs Predicted
-
17Connecticut College1.95-2.13vs Predicted
-
18Boston College3.35-8.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.15Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
-
5.99Yale University4.240.1%1st Place
-
10.25Tufts University3.240.0%1st Place
-
8.61Dartmouth College3.530.1%1st Place
-
7.74College of Charleston3.750.1%1st Place
-
9.66U. S. Naval Academy3.300.1%1st Place
-
10.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.200.0%1st Place
-
7.43Georgetown University3.810.1%1st Place
-
9.21Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.400.0%1st Place
-
8.83Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
-
8.76Stanford University3.560.1%1st Place
-
11.76Old Dominion University2.890.0%1st Place
-
8.71Boston University3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.43St. Mary's College of Maryland3.280.1%1st Place
-
9.09Jacksonville University3.430.1%1st Place
-
12.15University of California at Santa Barbara2.730.0%1st Place
-
14.87Connecticut College1.950.0%1st Place
-
9.28Boston College3.350.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Shanahan | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Baird | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Holley | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Christopher Williford | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Augie Dale | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Parker Loftus | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| Mack Fox | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% |
| Sean Segerblom | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Hector Guzman | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Romain Screve | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Jack Elkin | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% |
| Javier De urdanibia panos | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Liam McCarthy | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Lucas Pierce | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 12.6% |
| William Bedford | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 13.6% | 43.3% |
| Wade Waddell | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.