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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+7.09vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.37+7.02vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.07+7.40vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.37vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.20+4.44vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.72+1.30vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.93-0.56vs Predicted
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8Boston University3.35+0.80vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+0.94vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.39-0.97vs Predicted
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113.69-3.46vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.82-0.43vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.46-0.46vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.14-4.53vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.97-4.47vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara3.19-6.38vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.92-6.08vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.82-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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9.02College of Charleston3.370.0%1st Place
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10.4Stanford University3.070.0%1st Place
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9.37St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.44Boston College3.200.1%1st Place
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7.3Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.44Yale University3.930.1%1st Place
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8.8Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.0%1st Place
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9.03Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.543.690.1%1st Place
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11.57Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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12.54Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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9.47Tufts University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.53Bowdoin College2.970.0%1st Place
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9.62University of California at Santa Barbara3.190.0%1st Place
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10.92Dartmouth College2.920.0%1st Place
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11.0Connecticut College2.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Miller | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Alie Toppa | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% |
| Wiley Rogers | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| Isabella Loosbrock | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Ragna Agerup | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Shawn Harvey | 10.4% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Maia Agerup | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% |
| William Logue | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| JC Hermus | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 12.3% |
| Telmo Basterra | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 20.6% |
| Jackson McCoy | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Christian Filter | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% |
| Quinn Wilson | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% |
| Max Clapp | 4.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.