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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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13.69+6.36vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.82+9.14vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.72+4.17vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.96+6.09vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.07vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.33+2.65vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.61+4.74vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+1.50vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.35-0.51vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59-2.20vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.07-1.10vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.82-0.77vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University2.33-0.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara3.19-5.07vs Predicted
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15Boston College3.20-5.84vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.75-4.72vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University3.39-8.44vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston3.37-9.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.363.690.1%1st Place
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11.14Connecticut College2.820.0%1st Place
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7.17Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.09Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.65Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
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11.74Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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9.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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8.49Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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7.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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9.9Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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11.23Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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12.69Jacksonville University2.330.0%1st Place
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8.93University of California at Santa Barbara3.190.1%1st Place
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9.16Boston College3.200.1%1st Place
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11.28Bowdoin College2.750.0%1st Place
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8.56Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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8.24College of Charleston3.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% |
| Ragna Agerup | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% |
| Louisa Nordstrom | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% |
| Charlie Hibben | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 11.0% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Maia Agerup | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Charles Miller | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Wiley Rogers | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.2% |
| Andre Guaragna | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 21.1% |
| Quinn Wilson | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.1% |
| Isabella Loosbrock | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| Matt Safford | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| William Logue | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Alie Toppa | 6.5% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.