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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.61+10.67vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.46+6.08vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.23+6.17vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.11+5.27vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.59+2.34vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.97vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.72-0.17vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.39+0.14vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.75+2.00vs Predicted
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103.69-2.77vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.35-2.51vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara3.19-2.57vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.96-3.14vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.33-5.89vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.46-2.91vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.82-5.29vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.90-6.57vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.85-3.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.67Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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8.08Stanford University3.460.1%1st Place
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9.17College of Charleston3.230.0%1st Place
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9.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.110.1%1st Place
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7.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.590.1%1st Place
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8.97St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.83Brown University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.14Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.0Bowdoin College2.750.0%1st Place
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7.233.690.1%1st Place
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8.49Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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9.43University of California at Santa Barbara3.190.1%1st Place
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9.86Dartmouth College2.960.0%1st Place
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8.11Yale University3.330.1%1st Place
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12.09Jacksonville University2.460.0%1st Place
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10.71Old Dominion University2.820.0%1st Place
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10.43Boston College2.900.0%1st Place
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14.16Connecticut College1.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Hibben | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 12.0% |
| Telis Athanasopoulos Yogo | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Jack Brown | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Gage Schoenherr | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| Charles Miller | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Leo Boucher | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Ragna Agerup | 8.5% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| William Logue | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Matt Safford | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 5.5% |
| JC Hermus | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Maia Agerup | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| Quinn Wilson | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Jack McGraw | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% |
| Louisa Nordstrom | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Telmo Basterra | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 12.8% |
| Dreugh Phillips | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 7.0% |
| Peter Lynn | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% |
| Harris Padegs | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 14.6% | 33.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.