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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.15vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.20+2.10vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+2.07vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-1.45vs Predicted
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5University of Rochester0.95+2.04vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.53-0.26vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-1.01+3.83vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-2.44vs Predicted
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9University of Pittsburgh0.14-0.13vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.19-3.46vs Predicted
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11Colgate University-0.36-1.11vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-2.04vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.33-0.20vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-2.41-1.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.15Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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4.1Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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2.55Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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7.04University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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5.74Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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10.83Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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5.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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8.87University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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6.54Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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9.89Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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9.96Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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12.8Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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12.9Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Rizika | 22.3% | 23.4% | 17.8% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 12.1% | 15.0% | 17.0% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 33.1% | 24.3% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 27.8% | 18.0% | 5.3% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 15.4% | 21.2% | 15.4% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Cameron Wallace | 4.1% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 15.3% | 12.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 21.2% | 18.9% | 8.4% | 1.4% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 22.8% | 18.2% | 8.2% | 1.8% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 11.0% | 31.9% | 43.6% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 11.1% | 29.4% | 47.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.