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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+1.56vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.53+3.51vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.20+1.24vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77-0.84vs Predicted
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5Syracuse University-1.01+6.01vs Predicted
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6Colgate University-0.36+3.93vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-1.56vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-2.92vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.95-1.90vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.19-3.44vs Predicted
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11University of Pittsburgh0.14-2.16vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-2.05vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.41-0.15vs Predicted
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14Mercyhurst University-2.33-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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5.51Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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4.24Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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3.16Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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11.01Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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9.93Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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5.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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5.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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7.1University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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6.56Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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8.84University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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9.95Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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12.85Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.77Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Easton | 33.9% | 24.4% | 16.9% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.5% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 12.6% | 12.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 21.7% | 21.3% | 18.5% | 16.0% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 17.7% | 26.9% | 19.6% | 6.8% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 10.9% | 19.0% | 20.4% | 18.5% | 9.0% | 1.3% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 18.3% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wallace | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 21.4% | 16.2% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 12.1% | 16.9% | 22.0% | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.0% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 10.7% | 28.4% | 47.7% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 13.1% | 31.4% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.