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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.20+3.18vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+0.47vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+0.15vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.53+1.70vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+0.18vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.95+1.08vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-1.01+3.81vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-2.44vs Predicted
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9Colgate University-0.36+0.86vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.19-3.48vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-1.00vs Predicted
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12University of Pittsburgh0.14-3.18vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.33-0.22vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.18Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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2.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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3.15Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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5.7Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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7.08University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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10.81Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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5.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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9.86Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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6.52Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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10.0Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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8.82University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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12.78Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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12.89Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Shachoy | 12.3% | 15.4% | 17.3% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 33.7% | 26.9% | 16.4% | 11.2% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 22.4% | 22.6% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.8% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.5% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 17.0% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 16.1% | 28.1% | 17.5% | 5.2% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 17.0% | 24.2% | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.0% |
| Cameron Wallace | 4.2% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 15.7% | 20.1% | 19.5% | 9.9% | 1.8% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 19.6% | 16.0% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 32.1% | 43.6% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 10.3% | 30.5% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.