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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+4.60vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.20+2.14vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+2.11vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77-0.82vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-2.42vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.95+1.10vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.53-1.46vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh0.14+0.76vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-1.01+2.04vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.19-3.50vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-1.01vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-0.36-2.19vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.33-0.23vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-2.41-1.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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4.14Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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3.18Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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2.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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7.1University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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5.54Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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8.76University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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11.04Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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6.5Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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9.99Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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9.81Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.77Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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12.88Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Krzeszowski | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 11.9% | 16.3% | 14.2% | 16.3% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 9.1% | 8.9% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 22.5% | 20.2% | 18.2% | 15.5% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 32.3% | 25.0% | 18.1% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 17.4% | 15.3% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| John Colby | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 10.7% | 18.3% | 29.6% | 18.4% | 6.2% |
| Cameron Wallace | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 17.7% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 21.3% | 18.4% | 8.4% | 1.9% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 12.7% | 17.3% | 22.0% | 17.4% | 6.6% | 1.6% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 10.7% | 32.5% | 42.9% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 29.6% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.