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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.20+3.24vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+0.51vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.77+0.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+1.66vs Predicted
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5Syracuse University-1.01+6.07vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.53-0.19vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-2.05vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41+1.91vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.95-1.89vs Predicted
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10Queen's University1.19-3.40vs Predicted
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11Colgate University-0.05-1.61vs Predicted
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12University of Pittsburgh0.14-3.10vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-2.41-1.14vs Predicted
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15Mercyhurst University-2.33-2.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.24Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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2.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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3.16Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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5.66U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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11.07Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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5.81Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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4.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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9.91Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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7.11University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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6.6Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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9.39Colgate University-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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12.86Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.81Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Shachoy | 12.0% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 32.7% | 26.3% | 18.5% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 22.5% | 21.6% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 5.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 18.2% | 28.5% | 19.6% | 6.6% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 6.1% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Manney | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 20.3% | 19.5% | 10.4% | 2.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 16.8% | 10.3% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wallace | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick May | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 18.7% | 21.2% | 14.3% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 19.1% | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 29.2% | 47.5% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 32.6% | 42.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.