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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.19vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+0.49vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.20+1.24vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.53+1.71vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+0.20vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-0.24vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.95-0.15vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University-1.01+2.98vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.19-2.43vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41+0.04vs Predicted
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11Colgate University-0.05-1.62vs Predicted
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12University of Pittsburgh0.14-3.07vs Predicted
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14Mercyhurst University-2.33-1.21vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.19Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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2.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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4.24Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.71Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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5.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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5.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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6.85University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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10.98Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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6.57Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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10.04Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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9.38Colgate University-0.050.0%1st Place
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8.93University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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12.79Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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12.89Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Rizika | 22.4% | 22.4% | 17.8% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 34.2% | 24.8% | 19.5% | 10.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 12.3% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 6.4% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 9.3% | 17.2% | 27.0% | 20.1% | 7.1% |
| Cameron Wallace | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 16.1% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Manney | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 11.6% | 16.9% | 21.8% | 20.6% | 7.8% | 2.1% |
| Patrick May | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 20.2% | 15.3% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 18.4% | 15.5% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 33.1% | 42.7% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 10.8% | 29.7% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.