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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.18vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+0.50vs Predicted
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3University of Rochester0.95+4.00vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.53+1.75vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.20-0.61vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-0.26vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-2.07vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.19-1.53vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-1.01+2.04vs Predicted
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10University of Pittsburgh0.14-1.05vs Predicted
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11Colgate University-0.05-1.67vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-2.02vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.33-0.17vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-2.41-1.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.18Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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2.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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7.0University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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5.75Cornell University1.530.1%1st Place
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4.39Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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4.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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6.47Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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11.04Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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8.95University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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9.33Colgate University-0.050.0%1st Place
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9.98Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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12.83Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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12.91Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Rizika | 22.7% | 21.8% | 17.7% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 33.7% | 25.9% | 17.3% | 11.6% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 15.8% | 11.0% | 6.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sajan Alagiri | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 13.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 10.5% | 12.3% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wallace | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 18.2% | 30.6% | 19.0% | 6.2% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 16.9% | 17.2% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Patrick May | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 19.2% | 18.6% | 14.4% | 4.9% | 0.9% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 11.1% | 17.3% | 20.3% | 19.8% | 8.5% | 2.0% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 33.3% | 43.4% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 30.7% | 47.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.