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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.25vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+0.51vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.20+1.31vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.87+1.04vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.19+1.63vs Predicted
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6University of Rochester0.95+1.19vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-1.47vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41+1.82vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-3.77vs Predicted
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10Colgate University-0.36-0.09vs Predicted
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11University of Pittsburgh0.14-2.09vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-1.01-0.96vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.33-0.24vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.25Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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2.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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4.31Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.04Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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6.63Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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7.19University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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9.82Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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5.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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9.91Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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8.91University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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11.04Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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12.76Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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12.88Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Rizika | 21.9% | 21.2% | 18.0% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 33.5% | 25.0% | 17.8% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 11.6% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 6.9% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wallace | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Manney | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 21.1% | 17.1% | 9.2% | 1.9% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.5% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 16.9% | 20.7% | 18.4% | 7.8% | 2.2% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 16.0% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| John Colby | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 13.2% | 18.8% | 25.7% | 18.7% | 6.7% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 31.5% | 42.5% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 11.3% | 29.8% | 46.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.