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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.77+2.24vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+0.54vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.87+1.99vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79+1.20vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.19+1.62vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.20-1.59vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-1.49vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41+1.87vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester0.95-1.88vs Predicted
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10University of Pittsburgh0.14-1.07vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-1.01+0.07vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-0.36-2.13vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.41-0.14vs Predicted
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14Mercyhurst University-2.33-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.24Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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2.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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4.99Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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5.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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6.62Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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4.41Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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5.51U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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9.87Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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7.12University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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8.93University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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11.07Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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9.87Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.86Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
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12.79Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby Rizika | 22.1% | 21.5% | 18.1% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 31.9% | 26.7% | 18.0% | 11.4% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 12.2% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 6.6% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wallace | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 12.2% | 11.2% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Manney | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 16.2% | 19.6% | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.7% |
| Scott McKinney | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 16.8% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 20.2% | 16.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| John Colby | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 10.3% | 19.0% | 26.7% | 20.5% | 5.9% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 12.8% | 19.1% | 20.6% | 17.7% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 9.9% | 28.8% | 47.9% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 30.8% | 42.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.