← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17+1.60vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.20+2.21vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56+2.67vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.77-0.77vs Predicted
-
5Queen's University1.19+1.64vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.87-0.90vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-1.97vs Predicted
-
8University of Pittsburgh0.14+0.77vs Predicted
-
9Colgate University-0.36+0.92vs Predicted
-
10University of Rochester0.95-2.89vs Predicted
-
11Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41-0.98vs Predicted
-
12Syracuse University-1.01-0.96vs Predicted
-
13Penn State University-2.41-0.15vs Predicted
-
15Mercyhurst University-2.33-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
-
4.21Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
-
5.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
-
3.23Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
-
6.64Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
-
5.1Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
-
5.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
-
8.77University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
-
9.92Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
-
7.11University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
-
10.02Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
-
11.04Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
-
12.85Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
-
12.8Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Easton | 33.6% | 23.4% | 17.5% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 11.1% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 21.2% | 20.7% | 18.7% | 15.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Wallace | 2.9% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 8.6% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 9.1% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 17.6% | 17.0% | 15.4% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 17.8% | 7.4% | 1.9% |
| Scott McKinney | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 18.0% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 22.2% | 19.3% | 8.9% | 1.7% |
| John Colby | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 12.5% | 17.0% | 28.3% | 18.6% | 6.4% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 11.3% | 27.2% | 47.7% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 33.2% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.