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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.20+3.30vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.87+2.89vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.17-0.46vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77-0.72vs Predicted
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5University of Rochester0.95+2.14vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology-0.41+4.03vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.19-0.65vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.56-2.31vs Predicted
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9University of Pittsburgh0.14-0.11vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.79-4.76vs Predicted
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11Syracuse University-1.01+0.08vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-0.36-2.13vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.33-0.20vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.41-2.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3Cornell University2.200.1%1st Place
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4.89Cornell University1.870.1%1st Place
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2.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.170.3%1st Place
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3.28Cornell University2.770.2%1st Place
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7.14University of Rochester0.950.0%1st Place
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10.03Rochester Institute of Technology-0.410.0%1st Place
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6.35Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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5.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.560.1%1st Place
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8.89University of Pittsburgh0.140.0%1st Place
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5.24Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.790.1%1st Place
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11.08Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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9.87Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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12.8Mercyhurst University-2.330.0%1st Place
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12.9Penn State University-2.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Shachoy | 12.3% | 13.5% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Andersen | 8.1% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 16.6% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Easton | 33.3% | 24.1% | 18.7% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabby Rizika | 21.0% | 20.8% | 17.2% | 15.6% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott McKinney | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 16.3% | 10.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Manney | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 13.0% | 15.9% | 23.5% | 18.4% | 8.3% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Wallace | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 16.3% | 15.4% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adam Krzeszowski | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 17.3% | 20.8% | 16.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Blake Stackpoole | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 18.0% | 28.5% | 20.0% | 5.7% |
| Charlotte Reaman | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 12.1% | 20.6% | 18.6% | 19.2% | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| Robert Schneider | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 32.1% | 43.4% |
| Kristian Sonsteby | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 11.5% | 29.4% | 46.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.