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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+1.80vs Predicted
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2Syracuse University-0.55+6.39vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.27-0.03vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.50-1.30vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.15+0.07vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-0.69vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74+1.72vs Predicted
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8Queen's University0.94-2.65vs Predicted
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9University of Pittsburgh-1.33+1.23vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-0.31-1.96vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-1.86-0.72vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.19-1.22vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-4.21vs Predicted
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15Mercyhurst University-2.73-2.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.3%1st Place
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8.39Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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2.97Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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2.7Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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5.07Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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5.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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5.35Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
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10.23University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.04University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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11.28Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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11.78Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
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9.79Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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12.57Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 25.4% | 26.8% | 17.8% | 13.8% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Gerard Eastman | 23.8% | 20.2% | 20.0% | 17.6% | 10.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 26.7% | 25.2% | 20.2% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 5.3% | 7.6% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 16.9% | 17.2% | 12.2% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 18.7% | 14.4% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 12.1% | 14.9% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 6.0% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.7% | 0.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 17.1% | 16.2% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 21.3% | 21.9% | 15.2% |
| Erica Stone | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 18.2% | 24.6% | 24.5% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 16.1% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 9.8% | 4.0% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 21.6% | 47.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.