← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+4.22vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.74vs Predicted
-
3Queen's University0.94+2.33vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.27-0.93vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University2.50-2.24vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University1.15-0.97vs Predicted
-
7University of Rochester-0.31+0.79vs Predicted
-
8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+2.14vs Predicted
-
9Syracuse University-0.55-0.45vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-2.03vs Predicted
-
12Mercyhurst University-2.73+0.67vs Predicted
-
13Colgate University-1.86-1.75vs Predicted
-
14Penn State University-2.19-2.27vs Predicted
-
15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-5.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
-
2.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.3%1st Place
-
5.33Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
-
3.07Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
-
2.76Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
-
5.03Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
-
7.79University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
-
10.14University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
-
8.55Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
-
8.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
-
12.67Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
-
11.25Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
-
11.73Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
-
9.74Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.1% | 6.8% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 15.2% | 17.8% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 28.0% | 22.7% | 19.1% | 16.2% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 19.3% | 14.6% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 20.9% | 21.2% | 22.1% | 14.9% | 11.7% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 25.2% | 25.7% | 20.4% | 14.3% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 17.6% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 16.5% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 5.3% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 16.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 9.1% | 15.3% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 19.3% | 51.3% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 14.5% | 19.4% | 21.1% | 15.0% |
| Erica Stone | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 17.7% | 26.8% | 22.7% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 16.5% | 15.7% | 15.2% | 9.5% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.