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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.27+2.00vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.76vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.15+1.92vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.50-1.27vs Predicted
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5Queen's University0.94+0.49vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-0.72vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-0.55+1.30vs Predicted
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8Colgate University-1.86+3.16vs Predicted
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10University of Pittsburgh-1.33+0.18vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-2.06vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.31-3.94vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.19-1.20vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-4.22vs Predicted
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15Mercyhurst University-2.73-2.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.0Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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2.76Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.3%1st Place
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4.92Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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2.73Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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5.49Queen's University0.940.0%1st Place
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5.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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8.3Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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11.16Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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10.18University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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8.06University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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11.8Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
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9.78Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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12.58Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Eastman | 22.5% | 23.0% | 20.8% | 14.2% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 26.5% | 23.5% | 20.9% | 15.1% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 7.4% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 17.7% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 27.8% | 22.6% | 20.5% | 14.6% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 14.7% | 19.0% | 15.1% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 15.8% | 16.7% | 17.4% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 11.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 18.3% | 21.0% | 16.5% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 18.1% | 17.2% | 12.3% | 5.2% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 15.2% | 15.5% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 16.8% | 16.7% | 12.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Erica Stone | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 17.1% | 25.9% | 23.8% |
| Elliot Tindall | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 4.1% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 22.2% | 47.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.