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📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+1.84vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.27+1.00vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.50-0.33vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.15+0.99vs Predicted
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5Queen's University0.94+0.46vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-0.72vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-0.55+1.28vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester-0.31-0.07vs Predicted
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9University of Pittsburgh-1.33+1.21vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-2.04vs Predicted
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12Colgate University-1.86-0.73vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.73-0.36vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-4.25vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.19-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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3.0Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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2.67Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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4.99Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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5.46Queen's University0.940.0%1st Place
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5.28Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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8.28Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.93University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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10.21University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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11.27Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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12.64Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
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9.75Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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11.71Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thibodeau | 24.9% | 26.2% | 18.6% | 13.5% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 21.8% | 22.1% | 22.9% | 15.1% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 29.3% | 23.4% | 18.9% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 18.9% | 17.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 16.5% | 16.8% | 15.9% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 17.1% | 16.9% | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 15.5% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 18.3% | 15.9% | 12.7% | 5.9% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 20.1% | 21.4% | 16.4% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 11.8% | 19.6% | 49.4% |
| Elliot Tindall | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 12.9% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 9.6% | 3.8% |
| Erica Stone | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 26.8% | 22.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.