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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.50+1.71vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.27+0.95vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.15+1.94vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-1.12vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+0.30vs Predicted
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6Syracuse University-0.55+2.55vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester-0.31+0.78vs Predicted
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8Queen's University0.94-2.65vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.10vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-0.07vs Predicted
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11Colgate University-1.86+0.30vs Predicted
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12Mercyhurst University-2.73+0.64vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-1.33-2.93vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.19-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.71Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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2.95Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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4.94Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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2.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.0%1st Place
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8.55Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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7.78University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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5.35Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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9.93Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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11.3Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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12.64Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
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10.07University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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11.71Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Holthus | 28.4% | 25.3% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 23.4% | 22.0% | 20.1% | 16.5% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 7.2% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 16.7% | 17.7% | 12.4% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 24.5% | 23.1% | 19.8% | 16.0% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 4.4% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 16.9% | 18.4% | 13.8% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 16.4% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 0.2% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 6.1% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 17.3% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 13.9% | 8.6% | 4.7% | 1.3% |
| Elliot Tindall | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 9.9% | 4.7% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 20.0% | 21.4% | 16.7% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 19.6% | 49.4% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 15.7% | 17.5% | 14.9% | 11.9% | 5.5% |
| Erica Stone | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 27.3% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.