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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.50+1.65vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.15+2.77vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+2.07vs Predicted
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4Queen's University0.94+1.29vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-2.14vs Predicted
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6Syracuse University-0.55+2.34vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.27-4.08vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+1.83vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.35vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-0.31vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.05-1.60vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.19-1.35vs Predicted
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14Colgate University-2.13-2.54vs Predicted
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15Mercyhurst University-2.73-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.65Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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4.77Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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5.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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5.29Queen's University0.940.0%1st Place
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2.86Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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8.34Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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2.92Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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9.83University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.65U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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9.69Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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9.4University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
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11.65Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
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11.46Colgate University-2.130.0%1st Place
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12.41Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Holthus | 29.2% | 24.1% | 19.2% | 14.9% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 6.4% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 20.7% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.8% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 13.4% | 16.5% | 18.8% | 15.4% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 15.6% | 20.9% | 14.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 22.0% | 25.6% | 20.3% | 16.2% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 16.8% | 16.2% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Gerard Eastman | 24.8% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 16.9% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 5.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 17.8% | 15.5% | 11.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% |
| Eric Elias | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 16.5% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 6.7% | 2.8% |
| Erica Stone | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 17.7% | 23.7% | 22.3% |
| Serelle Carr | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 17.6% | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 22.4% | 42.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.