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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.27+2.00vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.71vs Predicted
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3Syracuse University-0.55+5.15vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+1.18vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.50-2.24vs Predicted
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6Queen's University0.94-0.65vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.15-2.25vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+1.86vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.30vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester-1.05-0.61vs Predicted
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11Mercyhurst University-2.73+1.55vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-2.39vs Predicted
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13Colgate University-2.13-1.54vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.19-3.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.0Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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2.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.3%1st Place
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8.15Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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5.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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2.76Cornell University2.500.2%1st Place
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5.35Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
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4.75Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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9.86University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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9.39University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
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12.55Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
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9.61Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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11.46Colgate University-2.130.0%1st Place
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11.54Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Eastman | 22.7% | 22.8% | 19.2% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 5.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 27.8% | 22.3% | 22.3% | 15.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 5.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 17.5% | 19.2% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 23.8% | 26.1% | 21.6% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 18.8% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 16.9% | 16.7% | 18.0% | 12.7% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 12.1% | 4.6% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 16.3% | 15.8% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Eric Elias | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 16.8% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 7.0% | 2.5% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 17.9% | 48.7% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 16.2% | 14.7% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% |
| Serelle Carr | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 16.1% | 26.0% | 18.1% |
| Erica Stone | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 18.4% | 24.1% | 20.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.