← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University1.15+3.83vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.50+0.61vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.27-0.04vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-1.19vs Predicted
-
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+0.22vs Predicted
-
6University of Pittsburgh-1.33+4.05vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74+1.46vs Predicted
-
8Queen's University0.94-2.72vs Predicted
-
9Syracuse University-0.55-0.75vs Predicted
-
10Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-0.34vs Predicted
-
11University of Rochester-1.05-1.64vs Predicted
-
12Colgate University-2.13-0.47vs Predicted
-
13Penn State University-2.19-1.44vs Predicted
-
14Mercyhurst University-2.73-1.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.83Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
-
2.61Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
-
2.96Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
-
2.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.3%1st Place
-
5.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
-
10.05University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
-
8.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
-
5.28Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
-
8.25Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
-
9.66Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
-
9.36University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
-
11.53Colgate University-2.130.0%1st Place
-
11.56Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
-
12.42Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fowkes | 6.9% | 8.0% | 13.7% | 15.3% | 16.7% | 17.8% | 11.9% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 28.8% | 24.5% | 21.3% | 13.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 22.4% | 22.3% | 19.1% | 19.0% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 25.4% | 23.7% | 21.1% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 5.0% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 19.0% | 13.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 12.0% | 16.3% | 16.1% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 4.9% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 16.2% | 18.5% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 19.4% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 14.6% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
| Eric Elias | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 2.3% |
| Serelle Carr | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 19.6% | 22.0% | 20.5% |
| Erica Stone | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 22.9% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 20.1% | 44.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.