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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.50+1.65vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+3.06vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-0.22vs Predicted
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4University of Pittsburgh-1.33+6.02vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.27-1.93vs Predicted
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6Queen's University0.94-0.66vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.15-2.27vs Predicted
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8Syracuse University-0.55+0.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.24vs Predicted
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10Mercyhurst University-2.73+2.52vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-1.05-2.61vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.19-1.35vs Predicted
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14Colgate University-2.13-2.59vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-5.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.65Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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5.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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2.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.3%1st Place
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10.02University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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3.07Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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5.34Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
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4.73Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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8.18Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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12.52Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
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9.39University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
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11.65Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
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11.41Colgate University-2.130.0%1st Place
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9.45Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Holthus | 29.8% | 24.2% | 18.4% | 14.4% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 5.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 16.6% | 19.1% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 26.6% | 23.4% | 18.6% | 16.6% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 15.6% | 15.7% | 11.3% | 4.5% |
| Gerard Eastman | 18.3% | 22.4% | 23.8% | 15.7% | 12.2% | 5.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 5.9% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 16.5% | 19.6% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 8.3% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 19.4% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 10.7% | 15.8% | 20.0% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.0% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 21.6% | 45.6% |
| Eric Elias | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 2.5% |
| Erica Stone | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 17.3% | 22.3% | 23.9% |
| Serelle Carr | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 23.5% | 20.0% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 16.4% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 7.6% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.