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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+4.09vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.79vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.27-0.03vs Predicted
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4Syracuse University-0.55+4.22vs Predicted
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5Queen's University0.94+0.34vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.15-1.09vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.50-4.42vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+1.87vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.25vs Predicted
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10Colgate University-2.13+1.54vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.05-1.61vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-2.40vs Predicted
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13Mercyhurst University-2.73-0.59vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.19-3.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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2.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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2.97Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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8.22Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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5.34Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
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4.91Cornell University1.150.1%1st Place
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2.58Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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9.87University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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11.54Colgate University-2.130.0%1st Place
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9.39University of Rochester-1.050.0%1st Place
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9.6Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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12.41Mercyhurst University-2.730.0%1st Place
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11.54Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.9% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 19.0% | 17.9% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 24.5% | 24.8% | 21.1% | 15.9% | 7.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 22.5% | 22.4% | 20.1% | 16.6% | 10.2% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 13.8% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 18.7% | 15.9% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Fowkes | 6.9% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 18.6% | 18.1% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 29.7% | 23.7% | 22.0% | 13.0% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 4.6% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Serelle Carr | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 22.4% | 21.6% |
| Eric Elias | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 14.7% | 15.5% | 11.6% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
| Gretchen Evan | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 20.1% | 44.7% |
| Erica Stone | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 19.3% | 23.9% | 20.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.