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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.11+2.50vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.98vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.50-0.12vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+1.45vs Predicted
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5Queen's University0.94+0.68vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.27-2.69vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-0.55+1.42vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+2.21vs Predicted
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9Colgate University-1.86+2.41vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.92vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.31-2.80vs Predicted
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12Mercyhurst University-2.34+0.18vs Predicted
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14Penn State University-2.19-2.14vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-5.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Cornell University2.110.2%1st Place
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2.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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2.88Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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5.45Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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5.68Queen's University0.940.0%1st Place
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3.31Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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8.42Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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10.21University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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11.41Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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9.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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8.2University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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12.18Mercyhurst University-2.340.0%1st Place
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11.86Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
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9.83Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebby Turner | 16.6% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 18.6% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 22.6% | 21.6% | 21.9% | 15.4% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 25.8% | 22.7% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 10.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 18.9% | 17.3% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 18.8% | 18.7% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 20.2% | 17.3% | 20.6% | 16.7% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 16.6% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 16.5% | 14.9% | 13.4% | 7.5% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 18.4% | 22.5% | 19.1% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.3% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 0.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 13.3% | 16.6% | 18.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Kaitlin Lightner | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 21.7% | 37.0% |
| Erica Stone | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 22.6% | 29.6% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 17.5% | 14.4% | 9.4% | 3.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.