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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.50+1.85vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+3.35vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.27+0.21vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-0.96vs Predicted
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5Queen's University0.94+0.74vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.11-2.42vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University-0.55+1.42vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+2.22vs Predicted
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9Colgate University-1.86+2.41vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-0.93vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-0.31-2.76vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-2.06vs Predicted
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14Mercyhurst University-2.34-1.90vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.19-3.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.85Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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5.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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3.21Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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3.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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5.74Queen's University0.940.0%1st Place
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3.58Cornell University2.110.2%1st Place
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8.42Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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10.22University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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11.41Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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8.24University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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9.94Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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12.1Mercyhurst University-2.340.0%1st Place
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11.83Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daisy Holthus | 25.3% | 25.0% | 17.1% | 15.8% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.1% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 18.9% | 17.1% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 20.3% | 19.8% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 13.7% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 22.7% | 21.9% | 19.5% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 4.0% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 20.3% | 18.6% | 10.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 16.5% | 15.2% | 19.0% | 18.7% | 14.7% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 19.7% | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 0.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 17.9% | 17.3% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 5.1% |
| Kaitlin Lightner | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 21.5% | 36.7% |
| Erica Stone | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 15.6% | 23.0% | 28.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.