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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.11+2.47vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.50+0.83vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02+2.39vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.27-0.70vs Predicted
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5Queen's University0.94+0.69vs Predicted
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6Syracuse University-0.55+2.69vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40-4.02vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+2.22vs Predicted
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10Mercyhurst University-2.34+2.17vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-1.94vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester-0.31-3.82vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-3.06vs Predicted
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14Colgate University-1.86-2.74vs Predicted
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15Penn State University-2.19-3.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.47Cornell University2.110.2%1st Place
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2.83Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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5.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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3.3Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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5.69Queen's University0.940.0%1st Place
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8.69Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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2.98Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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10.22University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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12.17Mercyhurst University-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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8.18University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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9.94Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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11.26Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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11.82Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebby Turner | 16.2% | 19.7% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 25.4% | 22.5% | 20.6% | 15.5% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 15.6% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Eastman | 18.8% | 19.0% | 18.9% | 17.3% | 14.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 21.7% | 15.6% | 9.9% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Niall Shannon | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 16.3% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 24.3% | 19.7% | 20.9% | 15.6% | 11.1% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Kaitlin Lightner | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 21.5% | 37.4% |
| Tanner Comer | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 15.6% | 14.5% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 15.3% | 17.3% | 15.3% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 15.3% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 5.4% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 16.9% | 21.2% | 17.5% |
| Erica Stone | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 22.0% | 29.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.