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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.27+2.23vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.50+0.84vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.40+0.04vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.11-0.49vs Predicted
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5Syracuse University-0.55+3.65vs Predicted
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6Queen's University0.94-0.31vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.02-1.68vs Predicted
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8University of Pittsburgh-1.33+2.16vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.31-0.78vs Predicted
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10Colgate University-1.86+1.36vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.74-1.90vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.17-2.08vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-2.19-1.15vs Predicted
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15Mercyhurst University-2.34-2.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.23Cornell University2.270.2%1st Place
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2.84Cornell University2.500.3%1st Place
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3.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.400.2%1st Place
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3.51Cornell University2.110.2%1st Place
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8.65Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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5.69Queen's University0.940.1%1st Place
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5.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.020.1%1st Place
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10.16University of Pittsburgh-1.330.0%1st Place
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8.22University of Rochester-0.310.0%1st Place
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11.36Colgate University-1.860.0%1st Place
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9.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.740.0%1st Place
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9.92Rochester Institute of Technology-1.170.0%1st Place
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11.85Penn State University-2.190.0%1st Place
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12.1Mercyhurst University-2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Eastman | 19.4% | 20.5% | 20.1% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daisy Holthus | 25.3% | 21.5% | 22.3% | 15.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierre Thibodeau | 22.4% | 22.1% | 17.2% | 17.6% | 12.2% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sebby Turner | 16.3% | 18.3% | 16.4% | 18.3% | 15.8% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Shannon | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 15.9% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Lauren Sullivan | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 10.7% | 16.0% | 20.5% | 15.2% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Tsuchitori | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 19.5% | 16.5% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Nicolia | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 16.3% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 6.5% |
| Sean Kilcullen | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 14.3% | 19.4% | 16.9% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Benjamin Parker | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 17.9% | 20.6% | 19.0% |
| Tanner Comer | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 15.8% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| Elliot Tindall | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 15.3% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 5.7% |
| Erica Stone | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 22.5% | 29.5% |
| Kaitlin Lightner | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 21.9% | 35.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.